Binghamton, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

233
FXUS61 KBGM 141859
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
259 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week as a slow
moving upper level low moves through. This will bring periods of
rain showers and chances for thunderstorms by Thursday and
Friday. A cold front is then forecast to move through on Saturday
with another round of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler
weather with a few lingering showers is expected to round out
the weekend on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Watching a batch of showers moving up interstate 476 northwest
into NE PA for a good portion of the afternoon. Some of these
showers are a bit heavier and will watch for any hydrological
concerns. Most of the mesoscale models have this getting into NE
PA before shifting eastward later in the day.


Some adjustments to pops with the mid-morning update as a fairly
organized cluster of showers pushes northward into CNY and NEPA
through the late morning.

635 AM Update

A tricky near term forecast, as an area of rain is moving
northward out of eastern PA, and is likely progged to overspread
much of the area this morning, into the afternoon. Some of the
CAMs such as the 06z 3km NAM tries to dissipate the steady rain
before it can make it north/northwest into Central NY. Opted to
maintain the current forecast which has support from the latest
HRRR runs, NBM PPI01 and current radar/satellite observations.
This still brings in categorical PoPs for rain showers all the
way north through the Twin Tiers, Susquehanna region and even
southern Finger Lakes region. Only minor change was to linger
higher PoPs 1-3 hours longer into the afternoon hours based on
the latest 09z HRRR.

400 AM Update

Unsettled, cooler and wet weather is expected across the region
today as a slow moving upper level low approaches from the Ohio
Valley region. Regional MRMS radar loop early this morning shows and
area of moderate to locally heavy rain across southeastern PA at
this time. This area of rain is moving slowly, but steadily
north...and based on the 06z HRRR...which seems to be handling it
best...the rain will arrive in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre between about 6-
8 AM this morning. The rain will keep moving north, reaching the NY
Southern Tier by 9-10 AM, before reaching Penn Yan--Cortland--
Norwich and Oneonta by 11am to noon. The rain is forecast to
continue pushing north, overspreading the I-90 corridor and Mohawk
Valley region in the afternoon. Increased expected rainfall amounts
above NBM/WPC by blending in the latest 00z ECMWF and 06z HRRR
data...This gave between five-hundreths to one-third of an inch of
rain across CNY; with one-third to two-thirds of an inch expected
across most of NE PA. After this round of rain, there should be a
break in the rain late this afternoon across most of the forecast
area. Model guidance is not showing an instability today, so no
thunderstorms are expected. It will however be cloudy to mostly
cloudy all day, with cooler daytime highs in the 60s expected for
most locations.

Tonight will feature some isolated rain showers and areas of fog
over the eastern slopes of the Poconos and Catskills. Mild overnight
lows in the mid to upper 50s expected.

The remnant upper level low/trough will move over the area on
Thursday. At the surface a warmer, southerly flow develops for the
forecast area. Scattered showers and isolated t`storms will be
around from late morning into the early afternoon...with coverage
increasing some during the late afternoon and evening hours. Have
high chance to low end likely PoPs in the forecast, staying close to
the NBM ensemble PoPs and QPF at this time. Deep layer shear will be
light and overall CAPE/instability modest (400-800 J/kg), so we are
expecting just general thunderstorms, with nothing organized or
severe expected at this time. With skies becoming partly sunny,
daytime highs will be warmer, likely reaching well into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

Another round of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms is
expected on Friday as a complex frontal system approaches the
area. CAMs continue to hint at a remnant QLCS-like feature
moving into our region from Western NY/Northwestern PA early
Friday morning, but with instability lacking, the expectation is
that any embedded thunderstorms will be on the weaker side, but
there still could be some gusty winds with these showers.
Conditions briefly dry out somewhat Friday night, but an EML
does begin to move in ahead of a stacked low pressure system
that will move into the Great Lakes. As a result, additional
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible the
second half of the night into Saturday morning.

Saturday will feature additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region, with the
most widespread coverage of showers being during peak heating in
the afternoon. Then as winds shift to a westerly direction, some
additional scattered wrap-around showers will be possible
Saturday night in Central NY, with conditions drying out from
the Twin Tiers southward into Northeast PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Much cooler weather is expected in the long term as our region
will be a mainly northwest flow regime. Scattered wrap-around
showers will be possible on Sunday, but coverage of showers will
likely not be nearly as widespread as Saturday. Sunday will be
the first of several days with below normal temperatures with
highs likely only in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

Monday and Tuesday is continuing to trend drier as a blocking
pattern sets up, keeping high pressure in control. That being
said, it wil continue to be cool for mid-late May standards with
high temperatures only in the 50s to mid 60s. With the growing
season now active across the entire area, we will have to watch
the potential for some frost Monday and/or Tuesday nights.

The next system may begin to approach the area on Wednesday,
although there isn`t much agreement on this within the model
guidance. For example, the 12Z GFS brings in showers to the
area during the day Wednesday, while the 12Z ECMWF keeps
conditions mainly dry with ridging still in place. So for now,
stuck with the NBM for this timerange, which resulted in chance
PoPs and continued below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly MVFR conditions due to either showers or ceilings
expected throughout the TAF period. However, confidence is
fairly high that KBGM and KITH will have a window of IFR
ceilings overnight. The possibility is present at KELM and KAVP
as well. A fairly strong gust of 34 knots just occurred at KAVP
which was in part due to wind direction interaction with the
elevation difference. Another random strong gust or two can not
be ruled out this afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and
isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions.

Sunday night and Monday... VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MJM